The Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. I - The Inner Edges of Planetary Systems

The Kepler survey provides a statistical census of planetary systems out to the habitable zone. Because most planets are non-transiting, orbital architectures are best estimated using simulated observations of ensemble populations. Here, we introduce EPOS, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, to estimate the prevalence and orbital architectures of multi-planet systems based on the latest Kepler data release, DR25. We estimate that at least 42% of sun-like stars have nearly coplanar planetary systems with 7 or more exoplanets. The fraction of stars with at least one planet within 1 au could be as high as 100% depending on assumptions about the distribution of single transiting planets. We estimate an occurrence rate of planets in the habitable zone around sun-like stars of eta_earth=36+-14%. The innermost planets in multi-planet systems are clustered around an orbital period of 10 days (0.1 au), reminiscent of the protoplanetary disk inner edge or could be explained by a planet trap at that location. Only a small fraction of planetary systems have the innermost planet at long orbital periods, with fewer than ~8% and ~3% having no planet interior to the orbit of Mercury and Venus, respectively. These results reinforce the view that the solar system is not a typical planetary system, but an outlier among the distribution of known exoplanetary systems. We predict that at least half of the habitable zone exoplanets are accompanied by (non-transiting) planets at shorter orbital periods, hence knowledge of a close-in exoplanet could be used as a way to optimize the search for Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone with future direct imaging missions.Comment: Accepted in AAS journals, code available on githu

Weather on Other Worlds. IV. Hα\alpha emission and photometric variability are not correlated in L0−-T8 dwarfs

Recent photometric studies have revealed that surface spots that produce flux variations are present on virtually all L and T dwarfs. Their likely magnetic or dusty nature has been a much-debated problem, the resolution to which has been hindered by paucity of diagnostic multi-wavelength observations. To test for a correlation between magnetic activity and photometric variability, we searched for H$\alpha$ emission among eight L3$-$T2 ultra-cool dwarfs with extensive previous photometric monitoring, some of which are known to be variable at 3.6 $\mu$m or 4.5 $\mu$m. We detected H$\alpha$ only in the non-variable T2 dwarf 2MASS J12545393$-$0122474. The remaining seven objects do not show H$\alpha$ emission, even though six of them are known to vary photometrically. Combining our results with those for 86 other L and T dwarfs from the literature show that the detection rate of H$\alpha$ emission is very high (94$\%$) for spectral types between L0 and L3.5 and much smaller (20$\%$) for spectral types $\ge$L4, while the detection rate of photometric variability is approximately constant (30$\%-$55$\%$) from L0 to T8 dwarfs. We conclude that chromospheric activity, as evidenced by H$\alpha$ emission, and large-amplitude photometric variability are not correlated. Consequently, dust clouds are the dominant driver of the observed variability of ultra-cool dwarfs at spectral types at least as early as L0.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Crystalline silicates as a probe of disk formation history

We present a new perspective on the crystallinity of dust in protoplanetary disks. The dominant crystallization by thermal annealing happens in the very early phases of disk formation and evolution. Both the disk properties and the level of crystallinity are thereby directly linked to the properties of the molecular cloud core from which the star+disk system was formed. We show that, under the assumption of single star formation, rapidly rotating clouds produce disks which, after the main infall phase (i.e. in the optically revealed class II phase), are rather massive and have a high accretion rate but low crystallinity. Slowly rotating clouds, on the other hand, produce less massive disks with lower accretion rate, but high levels of crystallinity. Cloud fragmentation and the formation of multiple stars complicates the problem and necessitates further study. The underlying physics of the model is insufficiently understood to provide the precise relationship between crystallinity, disk mass and accretion rate. But the fact that with `standard' input physics the model produces disks which, in comparison to observations, appear to have either too high levels of crystallinity or too high disk masses, demonstrates that the comparison of these models to observations can place strong contraints on the disk physics. The question to ask is not why some sources are so crystalline, but why some other sources have such a low level of crystallinity.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

The Onset of Planet Formation in Brown Dwarf Disks

The onset of planet formation in protoplanetary disks is marked by the growth and crystallization of sub-micron-sized dust grains accompanied by dust settling toward the disk mid-plane. Here we present infrared spectra of disks around brown dwarfs and brown dwarf candidates. We show that all three processes occur in such cool disks in a way similar or identical to that in disks around low- and intermediate-mass stars. These results indicate that the onset of planet formation extends to disks around brown dwarfs, suggesting that planet formation is a robust process occurring in most young circumstellar disks.Comment: Published in Science 2005, vol 310, 834; 3 pages in final format, 4 figures + 8 pages Supporting Online Material. For final typeset, see http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/310/5749/834?eto

Earths in Other Solar Systems N-body simulations: the Role of Orbital Damping in Reproducing the Kepler Planetary Systems

The population of exoplanetary systems detected by Kepler provides opportunities to refine our understanding of planet formation. Unraveling the conditions needed to produce the observed exoplanets will sallow us to make informed predictions as to where habitable worlds exist within the galaxy. In this paper, we examine using N-body simulations how the properties of planetary systems are determined during the final stages of assembly. While accretion is a chaotic process, trends in the ensemble properties of planetary systems provide a memory of the initial distribution of solid mass around a star prior to accretion. We also use EPOS, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, to account for detection biases and show that different accretion scenarios can be distinguished from observations of the Kepler systems. We show that the period of the innermost planet, the ratio of orbital periods of adjacent planets, and masses of the planets are determined by the total mass and radial distribution of embryos and planetesimals at the beginning of accretion. In general, some amount of orbital damping, either via planetesimals or gas, during accretion is needed to match the whole population of exoplanets. Surprisingly, all simulated planetary systems have planets that are similar in size, showing that the "peas in a pod" pattern can be consistent with both a giant impact scenario and a planet migration scenario. The inclusion of material at distances larger than what Kepler observes has a profound impact on the observed planetary architectures, and thus on the formation and delivery of volatiles to possible habitable worlds.Comment: Resubmitted to ApJ. Planet formation models available online at http://eos-nexus.org/genesis-database

The Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. II -- Population Synthesis in the Era of Kepler

The collection of planetary system properties derived from large surveys such as Kepler provides critical constraints on planet formation and evolution. These constraints can only be applied to planet formation models, however, if the observational biases and selection effects are properly accounted for. Here we show how epos, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, can be used to constrain planet formation models by comparing the Bern planet population synthesis models to the Kepler exoplanetary systems. We compile a series of diagnostics, based on occurrence rates of different classes of planets and the architectures of multi-planet systems, that can be used as benchmarks for future and current modeling efforts. Overall, we find that a model with 100 seed planetary cores per protoplanetary disk provides a reasonable match to most diagnostics. Based on these diagnostics we identify physical properties and processes that would result in the Bern model more closely matching the known planetary systems. These are: moving the planet trap at the inner disk edge outward; increasing the formation efficiency of mini-Neptunes; and reducing the fraction of stars that form observable planets. We conclude with an outlook on the composition of planets in the habitable zone, and highlight that the majority of simulated planets smaller than 1.7 Earth radii have substantial hydrogen atmospheres. The software used in this paper is available online for public scrutiny at https://github.com/GijsMulders/eposComment: Accepted in Ap

Hubble Space Telescope astrometry of the closest brown dwarf binary system -- I. Overview and improved orbit

Located at ~2pc, the L7.5+T0.5 dwarfs system WISE J104915.57-531906.1 (Luhman16AB) is the third closest system known to Earth, making it a key benchmark for detailed investigation of brown dwarf atmospheric properties, thermal evolution, multiplicity, and planet-hosting frequency. In the first study of this series -- based on a multi-cycle Hubble Space Telescope (HST) program -- we provide an overview of the project and present improved estimates of positions, proper motions, annual parallax, mass ratio, and the current best assessment of the orbital parameters of the A-B pair. Our HST observations encompass the apparent periastron of the binary at 220.5+/-0.2 mas at epoch 2016.402. Although our data seem to be inconsistent with recent ground-based astrometric measurements, we also exclude the presence of third bodies down to Neptune masses and periods longer than a year.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, 9 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS on 2017 May

The young stellar population of Lynds 1340. An infrared view

We present results of an infrared study of the molecular cloud Lynds 1340, forming three groups of low and intermediate-mass stars. Our goals are to identify and characterise the young stellar population of the cloud, study the relationships between the properties of the cloud and the emergent stellar groups, and integrate L1340 into the picture of the star-forming activity of our Galactic environment. We selected candidate young stellar objects from the Spitzer and WISE data bases using various published color criteria, and classified them based on the slope of the spectral energy distribution. We identified 170 Class II, 27 Flat SED, and Class 0/I sources. High angular resolution near-infrared observations of the RNO 7 cluster, embedded in L1340, revealed eight new young stars of near-infrared excess. The surface density distribution of young stellar objects shows three groups, associated with the three major molecular clumps of L1340, each consisting of less than 100 members, including both pre-main sequence stars and embedded protostars. New Herbig--Haro objects were identified in the Spitzer images. Our results demonstrate that L1340 is a prolific star-forming region of our Galactic environment in which several specific properties of the intermediate-mass mode of star formation can be studied in detail.Comment: 73 pages, 33 figures, 15 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ